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Is Now the Correct Time to Invest in the Dip Amidst the Crypto Market Crash?


The value of cryptocurrencies plummeted spectacularly in the final months of 2022 , and it seemed the bottom was lower than anyone expected. Last November, US-based crypto exchange Binance announced that it planned to buy rival exchange FTX trading—before pulling out 24 hours later—sending shockwaves through the investing world, with anxious investors pulling out their crypto funds and causing the company to collapse.

FTX filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the US shortly after, while here in Australia, FTX’s local entities—FTX Express Pty Ltd and FTX Australia Pty Ltd—have also appointed insolvency and restructuring firm, KordaMentha to act as administrators. KordaMentha is in the process of checking the books of the Australian FTX entities in an attempt to salvage deposits for local crypto investors. Documents filed in the Supreme Court of Victoria reveal that almost 30,000 Australian investors have been left out of pocket by the collapse of FTX, some by as much as $US1 million.

As the incident unfolded, the once-admired billionaire founder of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), issued a series of mea culpas on Twitter before he fled to the Bahamas—where the company is based. SBF has since been arrested and extradited to the US, following the filing of a sealed indictment from US attorney Damian Willians of the Southern District of New York

Predictably, the movements caused chaos on the cryptocurrency markets. The price of Bitcoin fell by 23% in the space of seven days to $US15,978—it had been above $20,000 earlier that week. The other major cryptocurrency, Ethereum, was down 24% in seven days. In fact, the closer the coin’s connection to Bankman-Fried, the harder it fell, with Solana (SOL), a favourite of the billionaire, falling 60% in the space of a week, while FTX’s native coin, FTT, fell by more than 90%.

It wasn’t the first fall for Bitcoin in the past 18 months. Bitcoin once traded for almost $69,000 per coin in late 2021, but began its recent fall from grace back in May 2022 when it fell below the psychological floor of $US20,000 due to a broader crypto market crash. Last year, in one week alone in June Bitcoin dropped by 30%, and in late October, was still trading at around the $US20,000 mark.

However, 2023 has seen a powerful resurgence across the digital asset markets. In January, BTC rallied over 40% from a low of just over $US16,000 to a monthly high of almost $US24,000. Despite this surge, Bitcoin remains over 65% lower than its all-time high value, with many other cryptocurrencies even further off their peaks.

When such large falls occur across the board for cryptocurrencies, many investors and enthusiasts begin pushing the old investment adage that it’s time to ‘buy the dip’–as many hope these lows mark a temporary downturn rather than a long-term bear market. But is this wise?

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Significant Losses

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There is little doubt that the crypto slide has been monumental. Since November 2021, the market capitalisation of all crypto assets has dropped from a combined $US3 trillion to around $US1.1 trillion.

Some US crypto lenders, such as Celsius Network, Babel and Vauld, responded by freezing withdrawals; other exchanges, such as Coinbase, laid off staff. Locally, Swyftx announced they were cutting some 90 jobs, claiming that while they were not directly exposed to FTX, they had been impacted by the wider fallout. Brisbane-based Digital Surge has entered into administration after it revealed they were directly exposed to FTX.

Meanwhile, ETH saw similar losses to Bitcoin throughout 2022, down to around $US1100, while Cardano (ADA) suffered even worse, falling to $US0.46. This was all before the FTX collapse.

While this doesn’t yet match the severity of the 2018 crash, in which Bitcoin lost 80% of its value, experts say things could still get worse for those left holding BTC—long regarded as the bellwether of crypto.

It’s these kinds of losses that have prompted the Australian corporate regulator, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) as well as consumer advocacy group, CHOICE, to remind people of the highly volatile and risky nature of crypto.

As ASIC notes through its Moneysmart site: “When a cryptocurrency fails, investors will most likely lose all the money they put in. In most countries, cryptocurrencies are not recognised as legal tender. “

The site also warns against a high instance of crypto scams, while CHOICE is calling for greater consumer protections. It’s worth noting that FTX Trading was allegedly hacked in the wake of its collapse, with “unauthorised transactions” revealing that $US600 million had disappeared from the exchange’s wallets.

Meanwhile, the Australian Government is planning on introducing legislation this year to better protect consumers against crypto shocks and scams, and is currently token mapping the crypto landscape to get a sense of the industry.

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Inflation, Downturn and War

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Co-founder of automated crypto trading platform Coinrule, Oleg Giberstein, thinks crypto is undergoing the same stresses as other parts of the economy, leading to the fall in prices.

He said: “It’s not just crypto that’s down, everything is down, and over the next six to 12 months the economic outlook is bad. Central Banks are between a rock and a hard place with regard to slow economic growth and high inflation. So, investors are escaping ‘risk-on’ assets like crypto and tech stocks.”

As for whether this downturn marks the beginning of a long-term trend or a temporary blip, Giberstein believes the market could remain challenging for up to two years, but added things could worsen during that time.

Sam Kopelman of crypto exchange Luno agreed that Bitcoin and other coins’ misfortunes weren’t happening in isolation: “Investors dumped assets across the board (earlier this year) as global stocks suffered the worst day since June 2020. The market is battling the consequences of rapidly rising US interest rates, alongside military conflict in Europe.”

Australian experts agree, with Chris Berg, co-director of RMIT’s Blockchain Innovation Hub, claiming that inflation was behind the (pre-FTX) precipitous falls.

As central banks, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, hike rates to curb inflation, investors begin dumping volatile assets.

“Crypto is the ultimate risk asset, so it’s the first to fall,” Dr Berg told ABC.

Is ‘Buy the Dip’ a Good Strategy?

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The principle of ‘buy the dip’ is based on an assumption price drops are temporary aberrations that correct themselves over time. Dip-buyers hope to exploit dips by buying at a relative discount and reaping the rewards when prices rise again.

Crypto markets are volatile, so buying cryptocurrencies at any price—let alone a dip that might become a long-term trend—is risky. While prices could return to previous levels, they could also fall even further, leaving your investment underwater.

If the past is prologue, then the current dip (or crash, depending on your perspective) could bounce back as it did last year, when prices fell to similar levels before returning to pre-dip levels and even peaking in the autumn. But of course, they might not.

The crypto markets have shown some strength since the beginning of the new year, but whether this strength can continue with the economic headwinds of high inflation and increasing interest rates is yet to be seen. As with every kind of investment, let alone the unpredictable world of cryptocurrencies, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Bitcoin fell to below $US16,000, after the news of the FTX collapse, but previously had been hovering around $US20,000 for months.

Co-Founder at Coinrule, Oleg Giberstein, said: “Many a novice investor has been burned trying to ‘catch falling knives’”.

He advises those committed to ‘buying the dip’ to decide on a set amount of money they’re comfortable with using to buy BTC or ETH each month and not to worry too much about what happens to prices over the next two years.

Pavel Matveev of digital exchange Wirex advises buyers to hedge their bets. He said: “It’s important to diversify your crypto portfolios with different altcoins to mitigate risks.”

How to Buy Cryptocurrency

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If you’re new to investing in cryptocurrency, and aware of the risks but want to learn more, we’ve put together a guide to walk you through the process, including how to choose a platform, what fees are involved and alternatives to buying coins directly. Read our How to Buy Cryptocurrency guide here.

This article is not an endorsement of any particular cryptocurrency, broker or exchange nor does it constitute a recommendation of cryptocurrency as an investment class. 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

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How much is Bitcoin worth?

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As of early December, BTC was worth around $US17,00 per coin, after dropping from a high of almost $US69,000 in November of last year.

Is cryptocurrency legal in Australia?

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Yes, it is perfectly legal to trade in cryptocurrency in Australia, but be aware that you may have to pay tax on your crypto assets and that the sector is not regulated by ASIC. If you lose your money, you have no recourse to compensation.

Will Bitcoin go up in 2023?

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Only time will tell. BTC has certainly seen better days: namely in November of 2021 when it soared to a high of almost $US69,000. It dropped below $US20,000 mid year before recovering to hover around the $US20,000 mark. In November it dipped again to on the back of news of the collapse of the crypto exchange, FTX. It is currently trading for $US16,500. Whether this low represents the true dip or a false bottom is anyone’s guess, especially as crypto is notoriously volatile.

Can you use Binance in Australia?

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Yes, Binance is legal and available for use in Australia.

Why is cryptocurrency falling?

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Cryptocurrency is notoriously volatile: an asset class so renowned for its precipitous highs and lows that it has prompted the federal government to explore greater regulation and ASIC to warn consumers about the risks of investing. The most recent drop in November was prompted by the collapse of one of the leading—and well-regarded—crypto exchanges, FTX Trading, which filed for bankruptcy in the US, while in Australia local administrators were put in charge of the flailing company. This caused the markets to plummet, with Bitcoin (BTC) down 23% in the past seven days, while the FTX’s native toke, FTT, was down more than 90% in the past week alone. The fall-out from the collapse of FTX is expected to last for a number of months.

Is buying the dip a good strategy?

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When it comes to cryptocurrency, buying the dip is a huge risk. While some investors swear by this approach, others have lost thousands because the dip they thought they were buying was a false bottom. Usually, if you fail to pre-empt the dip when investing in stock markets, then you can rest easy knowing that, in most cases, shares eventually go up again. There is no such certainty with crypto, which swings with such volatility that a dip could be the precursor to a spectacular crash. It’s wise to only buy the dip if you are prepared to lose your money.

What do you do in a crypto dip?

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There is no shortage of advice on what you should you in the instance of a crypto dip: some advocate for HODL — a slang term that means essentially to hold — while others try to recoup their losses by buying the dip, an extremely risky strategy that has been likened to attempting to catch falling knives. If you are exposed in a crypto dip, then seek professional financial advice based on your individual circumstances.

Is crypto real money?

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Cryptocurrencies do not exist physically as coins or notes, but are stored on a blockchain using cryptography, which proponents argue provides security and transparency. Many businesses have begun accepting cryptocurrency as a form of payment, and some countries around the world have recognised certain digital assets as a legitimate form of payment.

What is meant by ‘buying the dip’?

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“Buying the dip” refers to an investment strategy that involves buying assets after they have fallen in price. The reasoning behind this strategy is that the price drop is not reflective of the assets true value, and that in time, the asset will go up in price.

Does crypto have a future?

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It’s impossible to say exactly where cryptocurrency is headed moving forward, however, with the world becoming increasingly more digitalised, and the increasing need for transparent, secure, peer-to-peer currencies, it is safe to say these digital assets will be around in the future in some form.

Sources


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